无人驾驶的飞机或许可为航空公司节省十亿以上的美金，问题是你敢坐吗？
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Pilotless planes could save airlines billions. But would anyone fly?
无人驾驶的飞机或许可为航空公司节省十亿以上的美金，问题是你敢坐吗？
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Taking pilots out of the cockpit could save airlines billions. But would anyone buy a ticket?
取消驾驶舱中的飞行员们能让航空公司节省数十亿美元。但是不是有人会买票呢？
The aviation industry could save $35 billion a year by moving to pilotless planes, according to a new report from UBS. Just one problem: The same report warns that only 17% of travelers are willing to fly without a pilot.
根据UBS的最新报告，航空业如果采用无人驾驶飞机能够节省350亿美元的开支。但是，该报告还警告说，只有17%的旅行者愿意乘坐无人驾驶飞机。
UBS said that the technology required to operate remote-controlled planes could appear by 2025. Further advances beyond 2030 might result in automated business jets and helicopters, and finally commercial aircraft without pilots.
UBS说遥控飞行的技术可能在2025年出现。到2030年可能会在无人商业飞机和直升机上采用，最后则是在商务飞机上实现无人驾驶。
"The technologies in development today will enable the aircraft to assist and back up the pilot in all the flight phases, removing the pilot from manual control and systems operations in all types of situations," the report said.
报告指出：“今天的科技发展已经能够让飞机协助飞行员进行各方面的操作，使飞行员能够在各种情况下脱离手动操作而改用系统操作。
Commercial flights already land with the assistance of on-board computers, and pilots manually fly the aircraft for only a few minutes on average.
商务飞机已经在由机载电脑协助飞行，且飞行员真正手动操作的时间平均不过只有几分钟。
However, contrary to popular belief, airliners do not fly themselves, even when they're on autopilot. Pilots are continually monitoring and adjusting aircraft navigation and systems, communicating with air traffic control and preparing for the next phase of the flight.
然而，与这样的人之相反的是，大家都认为飞机不会自己飞行，即使是在自动驾驶模式下。飞行员不停地监视和调整飞行方向和系统，和调度中心沟通并准备下一步行动。
UBS analysts said the transition to pilotless planes is likely to happen over many years. Cargo planes would likely be first to incorporate the new technology, with commercial flights being the last to go pilotless. The number of pilots needed for each flight could be reduced along the way.
UBS分析人士说向无人驾驶飞机转变应该还需要数年。货运飞机应该第一个采用最新技术，而商务飞机要到最后才会采用无人驾驶飞机。每架飞经所需的飞行员数量也会随之逐渐减少。
The shift has the potential to save the aviation industry huge amounts of money. Airlines typically employ 10 pilots per aircraft, and reducing their number would result in less spending on training, salaries and other staffing costs.
此变动能够为航空业节省一大笔钱。通常每架飞机会配备10名飞行员，减少他们的数量也就意味着在培训、人员工资和其他人员费用上节省开支。
It could also help alleviate an expected pilot shortage over the coming decades.
它同时也会缓和未来十年飞行员稀缺的矛盾。
An annual forecast released by Boeing last month said passenger and cargo airlines around the world are expected to buy 41,000 new airliners between 2017 and 2036. That means they will need to find and train 637,000 new pilots to fly them.
上个月波音公司发布的年度预测指出，从2017年至2036年，全世界所需的商务和货运飞机一共是41000架新飞机。这就是说为了找到人去驾驶它们，他们要找到并培训637000名新飞行员。
Airlines in the Middle East and China, where air traffic is growing fast, are offering huge paychecks to attract more pilots and salaries in the U.S. are rising too.
位于中东和中国的航空公司，因那里的航空业发展迅速，正开出高额支票吸引飞行员过去，同时美国国内的飞行员工资也在上涨。
A move to pilotless planes would boost industry profitability, UBS said.
UBS说，采用无人驾驶飞机会会使行业的利润大增。
Alternatively, if the cost savings were entirely passed to consumers, tickets could cost much less (11% cheaper in the U.S.). That would be about $40 a ticket, according to the $369 round trip average in the first half of 2016, which included $23 in fees.
也可以说，如果节省下的钱用在客户身上，机票价格会大幅下降（在美国会降低11%）。那就是一张省40美元，计算的依据是2016年上半年平均往返票价为369美元，这包括了23美元的服务费。
Still, there is likely to be major resistance to taking pilots out of the cockpit.
但是，把飞行员从驾驶舱中请走，还是阻力重重。
A survey of 8,000 people commissioned by UBS found that 54% of respondents were unlikely to take a pilotless flight. Just 17% of respondents, who were from the U.S., U.K., France, Germany and Australia, said they would buy the ticket.
一项由UBS组织的8千人参加的调查显示，54%的受访者不愿意乘坐无人驾驶飞机。只有17%的受访者表示愿意乘坐。这些人来自美国，英国，法国，德国和澳大利亚。
Major regulatory changes would also be required and any reduction in cockpit staffing would face huge opposition from pilots unions.
还会有主要的监管上的变化，同时减少飞行员数量将面临飞行员工会的强烈反对。
Air traffic laws in most of the world require "four-eye-rule" in the cockpit. Two pilots should be present at all times, and if one of them needs to take a break, another member of the crew has to take his or her spot.
全球大部分国家的航空交通法要求驾驶舱内执行“四只眼法则”。舱内全时要有两名飞行员，如有一个人需要休息，另一个人就要承担起责任。
来源：本文原载于“充满阳光的房间”微信公众号，为该公众号的原创作品，转载已获得授权。
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