口译时事：越来越便宜的中国股市
时间:2013/5/16 来源:Twin 浏览次数:1254
A typical Chinese family owns too many bricks and not enough stocks. With Chinese stocks looking cheap compared with their history, and as property prices continue their years-long surge, now might be a good time to make a switch.
中国家庭拥有的砖头太多而股票不多。中国股市现在的估值接近历史低位，而房价在多年上涨后仍在继续攀升，可能是时候开始把资金从房市向股市转移了。
A common investing mistake is being overweight in assets that have done well recently. China was the world's top-performing real-estate market from 2008 to 2012, according to consultancy Knight Frank.
根据咨询公司莱坊国际的数据，2008年到2012年, 中国房地产市场是全球房地产市场中表现最好的。
Many stock-market investors, meanwhile, have suffered big losses, so it isn't surprising that sentiment and valuations are low. Only 22% of families who have invested in stocks have made a profit overall, while 56% have lost money and 22% have broken even, according to a 2012 household-finance survey by the People's Bank of China.
而中国很多股市投资者却输了钱，所以情绪冷淡，股价低迷。根据中国央行的“中国家庭金融调查报告”，投资股市的家庭中只有22%的赚了钱，56%的赔了钱，还有22%的不赔不赚。
The best investors are the ones who question their own decisions and listen to skeptics. The worst credit their own brilliance for gains made in a rising market. At Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting last weekend, Chairman Warren Buffett invited a hedge-fund manager who is betting against Berkshire stock to ask him questions. Chinese investors need to do the same with their own holdings.
最棒的投资者是那些怀疑自己的决定，并愿意倾听怀疑的人；最糟糕的投资者是那些在一个上升的市场里赚了钱，并把此归功于自己超常判断力的人。在上周末伯克希尔 哈撒韦公司的年会上，巴菲特请来一位做空他公司的对冲基金经理来质问自己。中国投资者也应该这么做。
Property prices can't rise forever; Beijing is trying hard to curb price appreciation and Chinese home ownership is already among the highest in the world. As many as 85% of urban Chinese families own property, according to the People's Bank of China report. Almost 19% of urban families already own more than one home.
房价不可能永远上升，北京方面也试图遏制房价的上涨。根据中国央行的报告，中国人的住房自有率已经达到85%。实际上，19%的城镇家庭已拥有超过一套房屋。
Meanwhile, after a series of big ups and downs, China's stock market, as measured by the Shanghai Composite Index, is trading right where it was about a decade ago. The MSCI China Index, which tracks a basket of Chinese companies listed in mainland China and Hong Kong, is trading at 8.8 times expected earnings for the next 12 months, according to brokerage Daiwa Securities. Among Asian markets excluding Japan, only South Korea trades at a cheaper multiple. Markets in the Philippines and Indonesia are twice as expensive by that measure.
一系列的上上下下之后，中国股市又回到了10年前的水平。根据大和证券的数据，追踪一篮子在大陆和香港上市的中国企业的MSCI中国指数，现在的估值是企业未来12个月盈利的8.8倍。这在亚洲（不包括日本）是第二便宜的，只比韩国略高一点。菲律宾和印度尼西亚股市的估值相当于中国的两倍。
Chinese stocks are cheap compared with their history, too. They are trading at a 27% discount to their historical average price-to-earnings ratio. By comparison, stocks in Indonesia and the Philippines are both trading at premiums of more than 40% compared with their historical averages. China's steep discount looks excessive considering economic growth has remained solid.
中国股市的估值和过去比也算便宜，相对于历史平均市盈率有27%的折价。而印度尼西亚和菲律宾的股市相对于其历史平均市盈率有40%以上的溢价。考虑到中国的经济已经启稳，这么高的折价看上去有些过大了。
（编辑:鸿雁）
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