双语:中美贸易战的最糟糕的情况是这样的
Here's the worst-case scenario for the US-China trade war
这是美中贸易战的最坏情况
By Christine Romans︱May 23, 2019
翻译:Ray ︱校对:Sally
It turns out trade wars are not short and not so easy to win, as President Donald Trump once tweeted. As the US-China trade war drags on, economists are sharpening their pencils, forecasting what a protracted trade war would cost.
正如唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)总统曾在推特上说过,贸易战并不短暂,也不容易获胜。随着美中贸易战的持续,经济学家们正在削尖铅笔,预测一场旷日持久的贸易战将付出多大代价。
protracted:延长的,拖延的,持久的
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warns an escalation would hurt the US economy and damage the rest of the world, shaving 0.7% from global growth by the year 2021. That's roughly $600 billion. The OECD sees the potential for new trade barriers between the United States and the European Union and Brexit-related uncertainties, as well.
经济合作与发展组织警告说,贸易战的升级将损害美国经济,损害世界其他地区,到2021年全球经济增长将减少0.7%。大约为6000亿美元。经合组织认为,美国和欧盟之间可能存在新的贸易壁垒,还有英国脱欧有关事件的不确定性带来的影响。
escalation:升级,扩大
In an analyst note, Morgan Stanley finds the window for resolving the trade dispute is narrowing. Without resolution in the next month, the trade war will bite into global growth.
在一份分析报告中,摩根士丹利发现解决贸易争端的窗口正在缩小。如果下个月没有解决方案,贸易战将对全球经济增长产生不利影响。
"If talks stall, no deal is agreed upon and the US imposes 25% tariffs on the remaining $300 billion of imports from China, we see the global economy heading towards recession," Morgan Stanley's analysts wrote. Under that scenario, the US Federal Reserve would have to cut interest rates, ultimately back to zero and China would need huge new stimulus, they said.
摩根士丹利的分析师写道:“如果谈判陷入僵局,没有达成协议,美国会对剩余的3000亿美元从中国进口商品征收25%的关税,我们看到全球经济正在走向衰退。”他们说,在这种情况下,美联储将不得不降息,最终回到零利率,中国将需要巨大的新的刺激。
stimulus:促进因素,刺激物
At Bank of America, analysts report the trade war has already hurt confidence on Main Street, noting a protracted trade war "could have a meaningful impact on consumer spending."
美国银行(BankofAmerica)分析师报告称,贸易战已经损害了华尔街的信心,指出长期的贸易战“可能对消费者支出产生重大影响”。
America's top retailers are already bracing for that impact. Kohl's (KSS), Home Depot (HD) and Walmart (WMT) have said tariffs will lead to higher prices on some items. The Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America, a trade association, said an escalation in tariffs on shoes would be "catastrophic." Roughly 72% of all footwear sold in the US in 2017 was made in China, according to another industry trade group.
美国顶级零售商已经准备好应对这种影响。Kohl's(KSS)、Home Depot(HD)和Walmart(WMT)表示,关税将导致某些商品价格上涨。美国一个贸易协会,即鞋类经销商和零售商协会说,提高对鞋类的关税将是“灾难性的”。另一个行业贸易集团的数据显示,2017年在美国销售的所有鞋类中,约有72%产自中国。
catastrophic:灾难性的
It will mean higher prices for consumers, or lower profits for companies. That can mean fewer jobs.
这将意味着对消费者的售价更高,公司的利润更低。可能还意味着更少的工作机会。
But a year into the trade war, there is a growing realization that Trump's tariff regime may become permanent.
但贸易战一年后,人们越来越认识到特朗普的关税制度可能会成为永久性的。
regime:统治方式,统治制度
Over the past year, the White House has imposed tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum, on $50 billion in high-tech goods from China, on another $200 billion in commodities and maufacturing components from China, and has now begun the process of putting import taxes on everything else the US buys from there.
在过去的一年里,白宫对外国钢铁和铝征收关税,对来自中国的500亿美元高科技产品征收关税,对来自中国的2000亿美元商品和制造部件征收关税,现在已经开始对美国从中国购买的所有其他商品征收进口税。
The president dismisses these concerns, admonishing American companies to manufacture in the United States if they want to avoid tariffs. The president's advisers say, US economy is strong enough to absorb any hit.
总统对这些担忧置之不理,告诫美国公司如果想避免关税,就要在美国生产。总统的顾问们说,美国经济足够强大,可以承受任何冲击。
admonishing:告诫,劝告
(编辑:T-win)